Do most recurrences happen in the first 2 or 3 years?

I asked the same question from my oncologist, and he also said most recurrences happen during first three years. Rcc can come back even 20 years later but most happen in first three years

Allochka said:

I've read the same thing.

I've read the same thing. That is why docs are most vigilant will follow-up during these first years

I was told the same by my surgeon/oncologist.

donna_lee said:

Remember that phrase that just about every surgeon has uttered, "We got it all."  But what they don't say is, "....everything that was visible and showed evidence of indicating it was metastic invasion."

After removing assorted organs and parts of organs, I had 2 recurrences in single nodes that showed evidence of growth as shown of Ct's.  Original surgery June of 2006, #2 on July 3, 2007, and #3 late June 2008.

Did the cancer come back?? Probably not, it was there the whole time; but just was growing more slowly at the time of original Dx or was not remarkable when the surgeons pawed thru my guts.

I don't know what the scientists and tumor registries have in the data bases, but probably not a lot on "long term survival" for kidney cancer patients.  I am inclined to believe what you are all saying-if it is going to show up again, it's usually within 2-3 years of the first diagnosis.

All any of us can do is be vigilant, keep our scheduled test appointments, plan on living and enjoy what we are doing.

Hugs to all.

Donna

My dad's reoccurred 23 yrs later. Dr said they got it all Sept 1990. 

The first year has the highest probability, and it goes down over time, but never to 0. The majority do occur in the first 3 years. I don't remember the exact numbers, but it was something like 40% the first year, 30% the second, 20% the third. The graph may be different by stage. You should probably try and find out by stage. I'm not so sure Stage 1/2 follow that. This was the data I was given for Stage 3 and Stage 4. For Stage 4 I was told my biggest risk is in the first year after my metastatic tumor had been removed, but that I have an overall chance of around 66% that it will return within 3 years. Another doctor told me that somewhere between 22% and 50% that it won't come back at all, and the biggest risk is in the first year.

Todd

firedude has a perspective on this, but I don't want to speak for him.  I think the 90% (or thereabout) number in 3 years is correct.  Some people are just lucky and fall in that 10%. 

Txgrl said:

RCC

My dad's came back 24 yrs later. Do not ever believe you do not need any more scans.

I know several people whose recurrences occurred many years later. I just met a lady the other day in my kidney cancer group who had 10 years and it has come back in the lungs and lymph nodes.

Another one had it in the 90's and beat it back with HD-IL2. Was cancer free for 10 years, then had an operable tumor that they've removed and she's been clean for 6 years. One of her docs wanted to stop scans. She changed docs. Her new doc says he'll find a reason to do the scans she needs. I plan to get yearly scans no matter what ends up happening 5 years down the road. (God willing I stay NED.)

Todd

...Should always be taken with a grain of salt. Anyhoop, the numbers in general, and I do stress IN GENERAL when providing the below information, based on the medians in the majority of studies:

Roughly 80% of all recurrence occurs between year 0-3 after intended curative nephrectomy. Another 10-15 percent in year 3-5. After that the curve flatlines and your recurrence risk is literally the same in year 6 and year 15 or year X.

The median time for recurrence is hightly related to the independant prognostic factors in your histology/pathology report: The more negative independant prognostic features the lower the median time for recurrence.

Most studies stress Fuhrman grade, tumor size and age as the most significant factors.

Theres a ton of studies on this subject out there. Google away if you want the indepth knowledge on the subject.

However, In the end, if you truly want an assesment, talk to your oncologist and demand that he walks you through every detail of your histology and what it means for your prognosis and recurrence risk. RCC (and I guess cancer in general) statistics are nice to get an overall idea and sense of "what riskgroup am I in?".

But there is so many both independant and dependant prognostic features in play in each individual prognosis, that you should never rely on, or conclude anything from, the topline numbers.

/G