Do most recurrences happen in the first 2 or 3 years?

MMondi1
MMondi1 Member Posts: 19

I was told by my doctor that 70% of recurrences happen by year 2 and upto 90% by year 3?  Does anyone know if the majority of recurrences happen by year 2 or 3?

 

 

Comments

  • sblairc
    sblairc Member Posts: 585 Member
    I do not know but we were told "18-36 months"

    We were only told that 1-3 years are when "most' are seen and that for Chromophobe specifically I read 18-36 months which is 1.5 to 3years. 

  • foroughsh
    foroughsh Member Posts: 779 Member
    I asked the same question

    I asked the same question from my oncologist, and he also said most recurrences happen during first three years. Rcc can come back even 20 years later but most happen in first three years

  • Allochka
    Allochka Member Posts: 1,060 Member
    foroughsh said:

    I asked the same question

    I asked the same question from my oncologist, and he also said most recurrences happen during first three years. Rcc can come back even 20 years later but most happen in first three years

    I've read the same thing.

    I've read the same thing. That is why docs are most vigilant will follow-up during these first years

  • APny
    APny Member Posts: 1,995 Member
    Allochka said:

    I've read the same thing.

    I've read the same thing. That is why docs are most vigilant will follow-up during these first years

    I was told the same by my

    I was told the same by my surgeon/oncologist.

  • donna_lee
    donna_lee Member Posts: 1,041 Member
    APny said:

    I was told the same by my

    I was told the same by my surgeon/oncologist.

    Remember that phrase that just about every surgeon has uttered, "We got it all."  But what they don't say is, "....everything that was visible and showed evidence of indicating it was metastic invasion."

    After removing assorted organs and parts of organs, I had 2 recurrences in single nodes that showed evidence of growth as shown of Ct's.  Original surgery June of 2006, #2 on July 3, 2007, and #3 late June 2008.

    Did the cancer come back?? Probably not, it was there the whole time; but just was growing more slowly at the time of original Dx or was not remarkable when the surgeons pawed thru my guts.

    I don't know what the scientists and tumor registries have in the data bases, but probably not a lot on "long term survival" for kidney cancer patients.  I am inclined to believe what you are all saying-if it is going to show up again, it's usually within 2-3 years of the first diagnosis.

    All any of us can do is be vigilant, keep our scheduled test appointments, plan on living and enjoy what we are doing.

    Hugs to all.

    Donna

  • Txgrl
    Txgrl Member Posts: 31
    donna_lee said:

    Remember that phrase that just about every surgeon has uttered, "We got it all."  But what they don't say is, "....everything that was visible and showed evidence of indicating it was metastic invasion."

    After removing assorted organs and parts of organs, I had 2 recurrences in single nodes that showed evidence of growth as shown of Ct's.  Original surgery June of 2006, #2 on July 3, 2007, and #3 late June 2008.

    Did the cancer come back?? Probably not, it was there the whole time; but just was growing more slowly at the time of original Dx or was not remarkable when the surgeons pawed thru my guts.

    I don't know what the scientists and tumor registries have in the data bases, but probably not a lot on "long term survival" for kidney cancer patients.  I am inclined to believe what you are all saying-if it is going to show up again, it's usually within 2-3 years of the first diagnosis.

    All any of us can do is be vigilant, keep our scheduled test appointments, plan on living and enjoy what we are doing.

    Hugs to all.

    Donna

    My dad's reoccurred 23 yrs later. Dr said they got it all Sept 1990. 

  • Time2luv
    Time2luv Member Posts: 49

    2006 lost right kidney, 5 years to left kidney (cyroblation), 7 again to left kidney (lost 1/3 of kidney), 8 yrs pancreas, 9 yrs both lungs, currently being treated for lungs. 

  • todd121
    todd121 Member Posts: 1,448 Member
    Yes

    The first year has the highest probability, and it goes down over time, but never to 0. The majority do occur in the first 3 years. I don't remember the exact numbers, but it was something like 40% the first year, 30% the second, 20% the third. The graph may be different by stage. You should probably try and find out by stage. I'm not so sure Stage 1/2 follow that. This was the data I was given for Stage 3 and Stage 4. For Stage 4 I was told my biggest risk is in the first year after my metastatic tumor had been removed, but that I have an overall chance of around 66% that it will return within 3 years. Another doctor told me that somewhere between 22% and 50% that it won't come back at all, and the biggest risk is in the first year.

    Todd

  • foroughsh
    foroughsh Member Posts: 779 Member
    todd121 said:

    Yes

    The first year has the highest probability, and it goes down over time, but never to 0. The majority do occur in the first 3 years. I don't remember the exact numbers, but it was something like 40% the first year, 30% the second, 20% the third. The graph may be different by stage. You should probably try and find out by stage. I'm not so sure Stage 1/2 follow that. This was the data I was given for Stage 3 and Stage 4. For Stage 4 I was told my biggest risk is in the first year after my metastatic tumor had been removed, but that I have an overall chance of around 66% that it will return within 3 years. Another doctor told me that somewhere between 22% and 50% that it won't come back at all, and the biggest risk is in the first year.

    Todd

    I remember once I read an

    I remember once I read an article and it was writen for stage two the reccurance usually happens between year two and three. Don't remember exact time! I think it also depends on the tumor grade, the more aggressive one,the sooner reccurance

  • firedude has a perspective on

    firedude has a perspective on this, but I don't want to speak for him.  I think the 90% (or thereabout) number in 3 years is correct.  Some people are just lucky and fall in that 10%. 

  • Txgrl
    Txgrl Member Posts: 31
    RCC

    My dad's came back 24 yrs later. Do not ever believe you do not need any more scans.

  • todd121
    todd121 Member Posts: 1,448 Member
    Txgrl said:

    RCC

    My dad's came back 24 yrs later. Do not ever believe you do not need any more scans.

    I know several people whose recurrences occurred many years later. I just met a lady the other day in my kidney cancer group who had 10 years and it has come back in the lungs and lymph nodes.

    Another one had it in the 90's and beat it back with HD-IL2. Was cancer free for 10 years, then had an operable tumor that they've removed and she's been clean for 6 years. One of her docs wanted to stop scans. She changed docs. Her new doc says he'll find a reason to do the scans she needs. I plan to get yearly scans no matter what ends up happening 5 years down the road. (God willing I stay NED.)

    Todd

  • Guinavere
    Guinavere Member Posts: 5
    Mine Has

    I  was first diagnosed in 2007 and every 3 yrs following surgery I have had recurrence, 2014 being the latest.  BTW in 2007 STAGE I I,  GRADE 3/4.  I  have only surgical "treatment " nothing else.

  • Galrim
    Galrim Member Posts: 307
    Statistics...

    ...Should always be taken with a grain of salt. Anyhoop, the numbers in general, and I do stress IN GENERAL when providing the below information, based on the medians in the majority of studies:

    Roughly 80% of all recurrence occurs between year 0-3 after intended curative nephrectomy. Another 10-15 percent in year 3-5. After that the curve flatlines and your recurrence risk is literally the same in year 6 and year 15 or year X.

    The median time for recurrence is hightly related to the independant prognostic factors in your histology/pathology report: The more negative independant prognostic features the lower the median time for recurrence.

    Most studies stress Fuhrman grade, tumor size and age as the most significant factors.

    Theres a ton of studies on this subject out there. Google away if you want the indepth knowledge on the subject.

    However, In the end, if you truly want an assesment, talk to your oncologist and demand that he walks you through every detail of your histology and what it means for your prognosis and recurrence risk. RCC (and I guess cancer in general) statistics are nice to get an overall idea and sense of "what riskgroup am I in?".

    But there is so many both independant and dependant prognostic features in play in each individual prognosis, that you should never rely on, or conclude anything from, the topline numbers.

    /G