The Problem with Statistics

I found a few predictive tools when I was first diagnosed.  Here is one from MSKCC.

https://www.mskcc.org/nomograms/colorectal

I like this tool because the sampling size is decent and it's interactive allowing you to input your specific information into the tool for a tailored result.  There are others out there which you can find by doing a search for nomograms.

We all know the pain of being a cancer patient/survivor.  Being stage 4 or recurrent is specific kind of hell.  My situation while it doesn't compare to someone being stage 4 or recurrent, is also a different hell.  I've lived up to the statistics being stage 3b with only 1 out of 17 lymph nodes and with left colon involvement being NED since my diagnosis Dec. 2012.  But my situation is complicated because I had a second cancer caught early at stage 0 in my appendix.  And I'm still dealing with high CEA levels now coming up on 2 years since the initial spike we don't know what to make of.

To compound the issues with health as I'm being followed for a cardiac issue currently even though I'm one of the healthiest cardiac patients my doctor has, I'm dealing with personal issues with a failed marriage.

On the topic of cars and having an escape, I can be viewed as an adrenaline junky.  I've been doing motorcycle track days for something on the order of about 15 years.  It's one of the few outlets where I have to focus on what I'm doing and I can forget everything that is my reality.  Here is a pic of me on the track:

And a pic of my toys:

SandiaBuddy said:

Toys

Thanks for your comments.  Interesting, the tool you mentioned gives me better chances than my doctors did... That's the problem with statistics.  Nice toys.

You might also try Adjuvant Online.  It's a tool used by doctors to get predictive results on a particular patient's prognosis.  You're supposed to be a doctor to create an account.  But I decided to try and create an account with some fake info.  I was able to get an account created and plugged in my numbers.  The PA in my previous oncologist's practice had used Adjuvant Online when we discussed prognostic outlooks.

Thanks for the compliment on the toys.  If you have the means to get the Mustang, I think you should.  No use getting it if things go south with your health.

zx10guy said:

I found a few predictive

I found a few predictive tools when I was first diagnosed.  Here is one from MSKCC.

https://www.mskcc.org/nomograms/colorectal

I like this tool because the sampling size is decent and it's interactive allowing you to input your specific information into the tool for a tailored result.  There are others out there which you can find by doing a search for nomograms.

We all know the pain of being a cancer patient/survivor.  Being stage 4 or recurrent is specific kind of hell.  My situation while it doesn't compare to someone being stage 4 or recurrent, is also a different hell.  I've lived up to the statistics being stage 3b with only 1 out of 17 lymph nodes and with left colon involvement being NED since my diagnosis Dec. 2012.  But my situation is complicated because I had a second cancer caught early at stage 0 in my appendix.  And I'm still dealing with high CEA levels now coming up on 2 years since the initial spike we don't know what to make of.

To compound the issues with health as I'm being followed for a cardiac issue currently even though I'm one of the healthiest cardiac patients my doctor has, I'm dealing with personal issues with a failed marriage.

On the topic of cars and having an escape, I can be viewed as an adrenaline junky.  I've been doing motorcycle track days for something on the order of about 15 years.  It's one of the few outlets where I have to focus on what I'm doing and I can forget everything that is my reality.  Here is a pic of me on the track:

And a pic of my toys:

Wow that is scary.  Two of my boys had bikes like this and it scared me so bad when I'd see them drive up.  They loved them though.  Glad you got some toys to play with.

Kim

Annabelle41415 said:

Scary

Wow that is scary.  Two of my boys had bikes like this and it scared me so bad when I'd see them drive up.  They loved them though.  Glad you got some toys to play with.

Kim

Hi Kim,

My mom hated when I got into riding.  Tried her hardest to get me to sell off the bike at the time.  Little did she know I would end up with three.  I sold off one of them a few years ago.  Never rode it much.  She doesn't bother me about them any more since it's been about 16 years since I started riding and I'm still all in one piece.  Riding is one of the few outlets I have.  And riding on the track in many ways is safer than the chaos on public roads.

That's interesting. My CEA never went up when I had the original tumour, it was always normal. But the mets make it go up and now it seems to be a pretty good indicator of what's going on. And I was diagnosed just over 5 years ago. And right now I feel amazing.

Jan

…being born is terminal. Two thoughts on statistics. First, they are usually extremely broad. And second, when I was dx’x I believe the 5 year survival rate was 5%. My attitude at the time was Why can’t I be part of that 5%?. 

SandiaBuddy said:

And another problem with statistics

Here is another variable to throw into the mix: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1724600818820679?url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori:rid:crossref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub%3dpubmed

Preoperative serum CEA level was measured in 2093 patients with colorectal cancer. No significant association was found between an elevated preoperative serum CEA and locoregional recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91, 1.84; P=0.26)). However, a significant association was found between an elevated preoperative serum CEA and systemic recurrence (adjusted HR 1.58 (95% CI 1.25, 2.00; P<0.01)]. The five-year disease-free survival was lower in patients with elevated preoperative serum CEA levels (P<0.01). Postoperative serum CEA level was the most sensitive for hepatic metastases during follow-up (73.3%).

A high CEA is also associated with mets, so it makes sense that some missed non-local microtumors would resurface in the higher range CEA grouip - no?

BTW, thanks for the info.  I really like to look at all of the information and talk to my doctor about the things that pique my interest.   For example, the studies on how right side cancers being less survivable seem gloomy until you find the ones that directly refute and queston that finding.    And anyway, I am far more concerned wtih the things I can do (like diet and supplenments and exercise and taking Social Security now than later so I can do more travel), and less worried about things out of my control - like which side my tumor chose to grow.