From dead man walking to NED

dhs1963
dhs1963 Member Posts: 513
in Kidney Cancer #1

Three years ago, I gave Stage IV RCC with sarcomitoid features.  I was given a very low five year survival, and a 20% chance of 3 year cancer free survivial.  But I was lucky, though.  My Met was lonely and was surgically removed.  I scoured the literature to find something promissing -- anything.  And, the only thing I found was statistics of small numbers:  in the studies there were a couple of dozen people like me, and while none survived 5 years, the there just may not have been enough people.  I looked at the charts, and realized that the recurrances mostly happened in the first year...that there is an exponetial decay.  Odds were, at the first two scans, greater than 50% chance of recurance.  I fitted the data to an exponetial curve.  Going into yesterday's scans, I estimated that I had a 80% chance of being NED; my May 2016 scans, I am about 85% chane of being NED.

 

My calculations show that I probably have about a 70% chance of no recurrance.  Note:   my exponetial decay constants are only valid for grade IV with a solitary met.

 

 

Comments

  • Jojo61
    Jojo61 Member Posts: 1,309 Member
    #2
    I like your math

    DHS your math calculations are really inspiring. You are so right - the longer you live without recurrence, the better your chances are of no recurrence!

    Yesterday I passed my "math" exam of 2 years and no recurrence! And it feels pretty darned good!!

    Here's to more recurrence free years - we have got to prove that your math is bang on!

    Hugs

    Jojo

  • icemantoo
    icemantoo Member Posts: 3,361 Member
    #3
    Jojo61 said:

    I like your math

    DHS your math calculations are really inspiring. You are so right - the longer you live without recurrence, the better your chances are of no recurrence!

    Yesterday I passed my "math" exam of 2 years and no recurrence! And it feels pretty darned good!!

    Here's to more recurrence free years - we have got to prove that your math is bang on!

    Hugs

    Jojo

    Averages

    DHS,

     

    Sounds like your batting average keeps improving. Maybe you should try baseball.

     

     

    Icemantoo

  • foroughsh
    foroughsh Member Posts: 779 Member
    #4
    I didn't get it dhs, do you

    I didn't get it dhs, do you have your yesterday scan 's report? If so,it must be NED,right? And about statistics, do you have info about stage two too? I'm stage two and was diagnosed 15 months ago,  my last scan was six month s ago and last abdominal and pelvis ultrasound was three months ago.If yyour scan was NED, then congratulations, it's great to see stage four people who are healthy and NED. Wishing you lots of uncle NED'visits

     

     

     

  • dhs1963
    dhs1963 Member Posts: 513
    #5
    foroughsh said:

    I didn't get it dhs, do you

    I didn't get it dhs, do you have your yesterday scan 's report? If so,it must be NED,right? And about statistics, do you have info about stage two too? I'm stage two and was diagnosed 15 months ago,  my last scan was six month s ago and last abdominal and pelvis ultrasound was three months ago.If yyour scan was NED, then congratulations, it's great to see stage four people who are healthy and NED. Wishing you lots of uncle NED'visits

     

     

     

    I got the results from the scan yesterday.

    Everything looks good.  My approach was to assume that the recurrance is an exponential decay to an asymptote.  I fit the 5 year survival data to that, and was able to get the 1/2 life and the asymptote for my specific disease case. 


    I used this approach because the number of datapoints were small:  to figure out where I stand, I needed a model approximation.  For a generic Stage II, I would think that you can easily look it up; there would be enough data to quantify the statistics with some validity. 

  • marosa
    marosa Member Posts: 334 Member
    #6
    foroughsh said:

    I didn't get it dhs, do you

    I didn't get it dhs, do you have your yesterday scan 's report? If so,it must be NED,right? And about statistics, do you have info about stage two too? I'm stage two and was diagnosed 15 months ago,  my last scan was six month s ago and last abdominal and pelvis ultrasound was three months ago.If yyour scan was NED, then congratulations, it's great to see stage four people who are healthy and NED. Wishing you lots of uncle NED'visits

     

     

     

    Wonderful News!

    Such great news Dhs!  I like your math and how those numbers play!   Santa Claus has been talking to uncle NED these pre-holydays it seems!

    Jojo Im guessing you got your NED results too.  That is so wonderful.  Great news to start the weekend with!

  • Jan4you
    Jan4you Member Posts: 1,330 Member
    #7
    marosa said:

    Wonderful News!

    Such great news Dhs!  I like your math and how those numbers play!   Santa Claus has been talking to uncle NED these pre-holydays it seems!

    Jojo Im guessing you got your NED results too.  That is so wonderful.  Great news to start the weekend with!

    WOW Dhs, amazing! So happy

    WOW Dhs, amazing! So happy for you and your family!!

    We're here for you to celebrate...YOU!!

    Hugs, Jan

  • foroughsh
    foroughsh Member Posts: 779 Member
    #8
    dhs1963 said:

    I got the results from the scan yesterday.

    Everything looks good.  My approach was to assume that the recurrance is an exponential decay to an asymptote.  I fit the 5 year survival data to that, and was able to get the 1/2 life and the asymptote for my specific disease case. 


    I used this approach because the number of datapoints were small:  to figure out where I stand, I needed a model approximation.  For a generic Stage II, I would think that you can easily look it up; there would be enough data to quantify the statistics with some validity. 

     
    I'm very happy for the

     

    I'm very happy for the clean result,thanks for sharing this good news with us

    Forough

     

  • Footstomper
    Footstomper Member Posts: 1,237 Member
    #9
    Well done sir!

    Take up the lottery immediately

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