How are you guys coping with the other C word?

Georges Calvez

Not out of the woods yet

Hi all,

I have a feeling that we are far from out of the woods yet.
If you are in one of the vulnerable groups then catching COVID-19 has a good chance of being the end, we have seen this from the way it has affected care homes, etc.
I suspect that because of the lockdown, the vast majority of the population has not been exposed to the virus.
We have 577 cases in my area which has 909,000 inhabitants, so I reckon most of the population has not been exposed including large numbers of people with underlying health problems that make them vulnerable.
As we move out of the isolation it is possible that if we do not put measures in place to maintain social distancing, etc the disease will come back to bite us in the rear end.
Flu is well understood and we know its limitations, COVID-19 is the exact opposite, it is a new kid on the block that is very unknown.

Best wishes,

Georges

eonore

Georges Calvez said:

Not out of the woods yet

Hi all,

I have a feeling that we are far from out of the woods yet.
If you are in one of the vulnerable groups then catching COVID-19 has a good chance of being the end, we have seen this from the way it has affected care homes, etc.
I suspect that because of the lockdown, the vast majority of the population has not been exposed to the virus.
We have 577 cases in my area which has 909,000 inhabitants, so I reckon most of the population has not been exposed including large numbers of people with underlying health problems that make them vulnerable.
As we move out of the isolation it is possible that if we do not put measures in place to maintain social distancing, etc the disease will come back to bite us in the rear end.
Flu is well understood and we know its limitations, COVID-19 is the exact opposite, it is a new kid on the block that is very unknown.

Best wishes,

Georges

Not out of the woods yet

Well stated, Georges.

hewhositsoncushions

Georges Calvez said:

Not out of the woods yet

Hi all,

I have a feeling that we are far from out of the woods yet.
If you are in one of the vulnerable groups then catching COVID-19 has a good chance of being the end, we have seen this from the way it has affected care homes, etc.
I suspect that because of the lockdown, the vast majority of the population has not been exposed to the virus.
We have 577 cases in my area which has 909,000 inhabitants, so I reckon most of the population has not been exposed including large numbers of people with underlying health problems that make them vulnerable.
As we move out of the isolation it is possible that if we do not put measures in place to maintain social distancing, etc the disease will come back to bite us in the rear end.
Flu is well understood and we know its limitations, COVID-19 is the exact opposite, it is a new kid on the block that is very unknown.

Best wishes,

Georges

30,000 deaths in the UK as a

30,000 deaths in the UK as a minimum so far. At least four times the average flu death rate in a far smaller time window and hitting disproportionaly older and vulnerable people a lot harder.

Significanly higher effective R0 number leading to massive case rise.

The US has a stupid anount more cases and deaths than elsewhere in the world and it is going to worsen.

EDIT: Apparantly the US has 4% of the worlds populace and 265 of the deaths to date

Europe is starting to get it under control slowly.

To those who say the fact that numbers are under control in Europe proves it is no big deal, consider that we have no polio because we have vaccines. The rates are going down BECAUSE of the lockdown.

Not having a lockdown or removing it too early will cause a huge second wave.

History tells us to take pandemics seriously.

Lets not be like the mayor in "Jaws".

Grinder

Politics is our downfall

Here in the States, it's bad enough that we have to take all the same precautions to slow the spread of Covid and protect the most vulnerable of the population...

But the political war going on is compromising national policy on effective measures to deal with the virus.

One party is desperate to watch the nation flounder so it can retake control of the executive branch of government this November. That is the political atmosphere Max was trying to describe, in which deaths from comorbidities are attributed to Covid and reported as such.

On the other hand, the other party wants to stem the economic catastrophe looming as businesses have begun to go bankrupt. The roaring "economy" was their selling point before Covid, but now they have lost the feather in their cap, as Covid brings our economic activity to a grinding halt. So now we are pumping 2 trillion dollars of borrowed money into the economy... financing such pork as 24 million in stimulus for the Kennedy Center of Performing Arts. 

It's a shame that political parties are vested in the failure of our response to the pandemic, and are using the pandemic to further political ambitions... but it is what it is. Hopefully by the Grace of God we will survive both the pandemic and the political warring factions.

Georges Calvez

Living quietly

Hi All,

I suspect that I and my wife will continue doing what we have been doing for the last eight weeks.
Shopping, walking, gardening, etc.
Things are going to reopen slowly and we will be at the back of the queue to go to restaurants or be in relatively crowded public spaces.
Peoples behaviour round here will take some time to change, a lot of people live in the countryside so they are pretty isolated anyway.
I have followed US politics more or less since Spiro Agnew got the chop for tax evasion and in my opinion it is not a pretty sight.
Without doubt it has deteriorated, with the problems now far outweighing the strengths of the system, how it can be changed to overcome these faults and return to some sort of normal service is a conundrum.

Best wishes,

Georges

xNTP

eonore said:

Numbers

You are welcome to disagree, but facts are facts.  If anything, coronavirus deaths are vastly undercounted.  You can believe whatever floats your boat, but directing your anger at the media, the scientists, the doctors and the governors who are trying to keep us safe, speaks of your worldview and politics and nothing else.

 

Eric

apples and oranges

In the US there appears to be some Medicare re-imbursement practices and political efforts to overcount other deaths as primarily caused bu CV19. 

Clevelandguy

Whats what?

Hi All,

What do they say, "Figures lie and liars figure"  or something like that.  All I know is I'm doing the Georges guidelines by wearing my mask and staying away from crowds.  It seems that this virus can take on many different faces from almost no symptoms to being put on a ventilator.  I don't want to be the one on the ventilator. Things are starting to open up here in Ohio so we will see if there are any large spikes in cases.  Looks like progress on treatment drugs and a later vacine will help as long as the virus does not mutate.  The politicians are having a field day with this along with the doom and gloom media.  It's really a shame if either political party uses this for political or economic gains. The government is letting some criminals out of jail so they either don't get the virus or to get treament which just adds another bad angle to the mix in my opinion. Everyone stay safe and wash your hands, wear your mask.

Dave 3+4

Georges Calvez

Undercounting, overcounting, guesses are free!
Hi there,

I doubt the real totals of those that died of coronavirus will ever be known.
In the case of care homes there are a lot of ill people that are hanging on by their fingers, if they get the coronavirus and that pushes them over the edge what does the doctor declare the death as?
This is an interesting article from The Guardian on UK care homes, in parts of France where there has been a lot of coronavirus there have been similar situations, I suspect the same has happened everywhere.
Basically we would expect people in care homes to die at a statistically predictable rate but since the advent of the coronavirus there has been a huge spike in deaths.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/coronavirus-real-care-home-death-toll-double-official-figure-study-says

Best wishes,

Georges

VascodaGama

50 million deaths of Covid-19 would fit researcher’s estimates

According to researchers, Sars-cov2 has over 150 mutations since leaving China in December 2019. In each mutation it got the ability for being more effective in infecting several types of cells. In other words, it can travel from organ to organ limiting the immune system’s capability in fighting the foreigner. As much longer as it spreads, more mutations will occur making it still more difficult in eliminating it.
Sars-cov2 could become a virus living among the human as the HIV.

Many try to figure out if his country has done well in regards to the means applied to counter the pandemic but one never gets there by simply comparing the numbers of death in each country. After all any one is subjected to contagious so that with the borders closed down, the number of the population becomes the target for comparison. In Portugal they count with 1,190 dead cases and 28,500 confirmed positive cases. Probably we could double these results to be closer to the real numbers. However, even if there were 2,000 deaths the percentage in regards to the total population of the country would get us 200 dead and 2,700 infected per 1,000,000 people.
This sets Portuguese health authorities system at the 10^th place, to control the pandemic. The number of deaths was small but the control wasn’t that efficient. And now they have announced the end of confinement, starting Monday, which surely will raise the number of contagious. Particularly at my area near the sea and beaches places the regulations were set without any particular means that would assure proper control. They calculated 10m2 of area per person using the beach and plan to install poles with red lights to inform the people that the beach is full. I expect to see many blind visitors to the beach this year. As we say, “The only thing worse than being blind is having sight but no vision”.

Best,

VG

hewhositsoncushions

The usual trend when a

The usual trend when a disease increase the R0 factor is for IFR to go down because a highly lethal disease is less likely to spread quickly. Ebola has a fairly low R0 (1.5 to 1.9) and measles has an R0 of 15.

In the UK the madman Boris is letting the gates open even though the R0 has gone back to near 1 because he places money for the rich over the lives of the poor. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

Georges Calvez

Mutations

Hi there,

The coronavirus is mutating but most of these mutations are copying errors.
They do not affect the behaviour of the virus making it more or less infective or deadly.
The difficult thing is keeping a sense of proportion when it seems that many in the media and politicians are either talking nonsense or distorting the truth for their own ends.
Coronavirus is bad but it is nothing in comparison with the Spanish Flu.
My wife and I are lucky insofar as we do not have to work os we can social distance to our hearts' content
The sun is out, off for another walk in the country this afternoon.

Best wishes,

Georges

Georges Calvez

Less lockdown

Hi there,

So it will be less lockdown from Tuesday, people will be able to travel freely in France, bars and cafes will open, etc.
Round here we have around two new cases per day in an area that is home to 909,000 but in Paris and a few other places it is a lot higher.
The big question is what will happen when people start to circulate freely again?
At the moment it is very warm and the air is dry, not good conditions for a circulating virus.
A tiny droplet with millions of virus can fall on a hard surface, within seconds it has dried out. The water molecules that kept the delicate lattice of its RNA safe are gone and the UV rays are knocking holes in it.
Come October it will be cooler and the air will be moist, CV-19 could easily shoot away again.
I am not sure that anyone is making the in depth preparations that will be needed to control a second wave.

Best wishes,

Georges

hewhositsoncushions

Georges Calvez said:

Less lockdown

Hi there,

So it will be less lockdown from Tuesday, people will be able to travel freely in France, bars and cafes will open, etc.
Round here we have around two new cases per day in an area that is home to 909,000 but in Paris and a few other places it is a lot higher.
The big question is what will happen when people start to circulate freely again?
At the moment it is very warm and the air is dry, not good conditions for a circulating virus.
A tiny droplet with millions of virus can fall on a hard surface, within seconds it has dried out. The water molecules that kept the delicate lattice of its RNA safe are gone and the UV rays are knocking holes in it.
Come October it will be cooler and the air will be moist, CV-19 could easily shoot away again.
I am not sure that anyone is making the in depth preparations that will be needed to control a second wave.

Best wishes,

Georges

They are putting profit over

They are putting profit over lives. We just need to protect ourselves and those we care about. There will be a reckoning when this is all over, even if just at the ballot box.

Clevelandguy

2nd wave?

Hi All,

Sounds like people(mostly young adults) are throwing caution to the wind here in the states and gathering in large groups with no protection or distancing to party. Not too smart in my opinion but we will see if it kicks us into a 2nd wave. Some people still believe this is all made up by the government to supress us and take away our freedom.  With all the body bags in New York city and hospital overload within the last few weeks I don't see their logic.  Hopefully people will wise up until a vaccine is found.

Dave 3+4

Georges Calvez

Beach

Hi there,

I went to take a look at my favourite beach yesterday afternoon, it is a holiday weekend and very warm but it was covered.
Coronavirus seems to fallen off a cliff round here so it has become a case of out of sight out of mind.
The French are going to holiday in France this year, they do not have much choice really, so I suspect that they are going to party like 1999.
The good thing is it is not coronavirus weather, around 30 C in the late afternoon and very dry so the virus has not got good conditions for propagating.

Best wishes,

Georges

VascodaGama

Does temperature really matter?

Yes.  The behavior of the young population here is not trusted too. In fact there are signs that these are the ones that will start the second wave of the contagious. Portugal has shown beautiful numbers of low infected cases and death numbers but “R0” is not equally distributed throughout the country. Lisbon region has shown recently an increase in the number of contagious when compared to other regions, exactly as it deconfined faster taking high number of people to the streets and to the beach sites. Night coffee shops and small bars also opened unchecked by the authorities. The R0 seems to have increased over 1.
The most contagious so far are the 20 to 59 years old and the number of deaths start at the ages of 80+ decreasing considerably to those in the age of 40. My group of 70^th are second in the line of death.

In the south we can see a higher number of arrivals of people from the north but not in a huge number as it was expected. Probably the economics took many to drive to closer places. In any case, the local Faro airport will open to tourists from other countries starting July 1^st and doing so without any restriction in regards to the need of quarantine. I wonder if the problem can be pointed to the younger or to the fault by the authorities in being more exigent in controlling the virus. In Madeira Island the local authorities allow free-pass to visitors that have been tested within 72 hours previous of arrival. Others will have to stay at their hotels in 15 days quarantine.

Let’s be more careful.

VG

hopeful and optimistic

rant

Here in the USA, unfortunately the pandemic has taken second place to the black live movement. That is what is on the news programs. 

Those protesting, without masks and enough social distancing,  can create seeds of future infecition. Various stores in my area have been looted to include drug stores. There is a CVS very close to where I live that has been looted. They also had a Covid19 testing center. This is the worst possible time for these protests.

I live in a senior community in California and go for walks. I notice that several of the seniors that I see do not wear masks, more than I previously noted.

I have a brother who lives in New Jersey; the county he lives in, is very close to New York City and has the most cases in New Jersey. It is an epicenter. He sees the same; lots of risky behaviors.

As many of you are aware, there is an emphasis on economic recovery in the united states, with much disregard for scientific evidence for social distancing . The white house task and other federal goverment agencies, have for the most part been silenced, and has not been publisizing the importance of safe practices to limit corona virus spread, and many here, really think that now the virus will not spread as before, and I see all kinds of risky behavior. 

As  long as I'm ranting, I want to mention something that will offend some who read this. I am upset with President Trump with regard to the the poor example that he presents to the people. I realize that he is not a doctor, but how can he refuse to wear a mask. (Wearing a mask helps to prevent spread to others) He was exposed to the disease, and still he does not wear a mask. He has no regard for the safety of others who come in his contact. He is not setting an example for others, and many emulate his behavior, thus spreading the disease. ......I think that he does not wear a mask, ( and vice president pence) because they want to present an image that it's okay for the average joe to go out to work and not be concerned about scientific studies that indicate safe practices......I really believe that there will be a lots of extra deaths here.

 

CSN_Elena

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