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Percentage question

JanJan63's picture
JanJan63
Posts: 2482
Joined: Sep 2014

I have a friend that had breast cancer about 7  years ago. She hasn't had a recurrance. She told me she's scared because her oncologist said there's a 50% chance it will come back.

Here's my question. We all have an almost 50% chance of getting cancer including people that don't have it now. So doesn't that mean that she no more chance of getting it again than she did to start with? 

I have a feeling I asked this on here before but my memory isn't great and I'm not sure.

Thanks for any thoughts about this!

Jan

abrub's picture
abrub
Posts: 2094
Joined: Mar 2010

There is less than a .1% chance of developing appendix cancer.  I fall into that .1%.  Statistics don't mean much to an individual.  Your friend should live life for now, under the assumption that it won't come back.  If it does, she'll deal with it then.  Whether or not the recurrence card is in her deck remains to be seen.  My deck has held a few surprises (recurrence after 9 years for appendix cancer, then another separate recurrence appeared within 6 months thereafter.)  I'm hoping that I'm done, but we won't know until it recurs or I die of something else (preferably old age.)

Alice

SandiaBuddy's picture
SandiaBuddy
Posts: 878
Joined: Apr 2017

To the best of my understanding, there is a bell curve measuring the likelihood of recurrence.  I have never looked at breast cancer statistics, but I imagine it is the same.  Seven years out, I would imagine her chances are getting very close to those of a person who has never had cancer.  But that would be a matter for her to research.  

tanstaafl's picture
tanstaafl
Posts: 1292
Joined: Oct 2010

In her shoes, I might explore two areas:

1. CEA and breast cancer markers done  1-3x a year.  Dr  often advise breast cnacer survivors they don't do this.  I had a college friend who recurred on breast cancer, and her CEA was ~400, and the breast cancer marker over the moon.  Too late. 

2.  SUpplements for breast cancer, particularly D3 and MK4 for K2, and other alternatives from LEF.       

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